WoodMac: Guyana, Suriname could provide 12 million tpy of LNG in 2030s
Guyana and Suriname could supply up to 12 million tonnes/year (tpy) of LNG by the next decade, according to a report by Wood Mackenzie.
Guyana's Haimara cluster and Suriname's Block 52 (Sloanea) are estimated by Wood Mackenzie to hold 13 tcf of discovered non-associated gas. These sources could deliver this potential LNG supply at a breakeven, excluding shipping and regasification costs, of about US$6/MMbtu (FOB NPV10 breakeven), according to Wood Mackenzie.
The positive economic results are supported by high well productivity and upstream partners experienced in LNG commercialization, the firm said.
According to the report, the global market still needs 105 million tpy of pre-final investment decision (pre-FID) LNG to fill the supply/demand gap by 2035.
"Guyana and Suriname projects are firming up at an interesting time," said Amanda Bandeira, research analyst, Latin America Upstream Oil and Gas for Wood Mackenzie. "US and Qatar LNG dominance is rapidly growing, but there is a supply window in the mid-2030s coming in part from the US President Biden's pause on approving new US LNG export projects.
"In this environment, Guyana and Suriname can offer a new cost-competitive LNG supply source and serve as regional suppliers, holding shipping costs advantage to address Caribbean and South American demand. They are also on par with US Gulf and West Africa projects to deliver to the main demand centres in Southeast Asia."
The developments still face uncertainty as commercial structure and fiscal terms remain unclear, the report noted.
"In Suriname, there is still no set terms for non-associated gas developments, but we expect this project to move forward swiftly – with first gas in 2031 – as the government and project partners have agreed to a 10-year tax break," said Luiz Hayum, principal analyst, Latin America Upstream.
In Guyana, the government and upstream partners alignment on fiscal terms and commercial structure are less advanced, and any disputes could delay the project first gas beyond 2031.
