Rystad: China’s aggressive tariff retaliation dims prospects for quick US trade deal
Tensions in the US-China trade war have escalated sharply, with both sides stepping up economic confrontation through new tariffs. In response to Washington's latest measures, Beijing announced a 34% tariff on all US goods, effective Apr. 10, and pledged to retaliate against any further US tariff increases after US President Trump threatened an additional 50% levy on Chinese imports.
The escalating conflict has already rippled through global markets. Oil prices have fallen by about $6/bbl, reflecting mounting fears that the intensifying trade dispute could trigger a broader economic downturn.
According to Rystad Energy, China’s aggressive retaliation significantly reduces the likelihood of a swift resolution between the world’s two largest economies, raising the specter of a global recession.
“The current hawkish stance of the Chinese government is based on its long preparation after the first trade war, including diversifying its economy and trading partners,” said Lin Ye, vice-president of Oil Commodity Markets at Rystad Energy.
“We believe China’s 50,000 b/d to 100,000 b/d of oil demand growth is at risk if the trade war continues for longer, however, a stronger stimulus to boost domestic consumption could mitigate the losses.
“The resilience of the Chinese economy is likely to survive the trade war. At the same time, China has been reacting to the US sanctions in a cautiously proactive manner, exploring workarounds to circumvent sanctions while trying to stay away from potential repercussions.”
In March's Two Sessions political meetings, Beijing emphasized the critical role of domestic consumption in sustaining growth. With downside risks to China's total goods exports estimated at 7-9%, policymakers are widely expected to introduce additional stimulus measures at an upcoming conference in April to bolster consumer spending and help achieve the government's 5% GDP growth target for 2025.
If stimulus efforts fall short, however, China’s rapidly expanding petrochemical demand could falter, reflecting a potential decline in consumer spending. Diesel demand may also be hit, as negative impacts ripple through the manufacturing sector.
Separately, rising geopolitical risks are adding strain to China's oil markets. After the US directly sanctioned one of the teapot refineries in China, Shandong ports have stopped unloading Iranian crude. This has been in response to concerns about US sanctions, leaving several sanctioned Aframaxes carrying Iranian crude waiting to discharge outside Dongying port.
Potential further sanctions on Iran are likely to happen, which will further challenge the supply chain and pressure teapot access to discounted barrels. Rystad Energy expects continued downside risks to teapot runs amid lack of affordable feedstocks.
