IEA: Non-OPEC+ production growth bolstered by new offshore capacity
Offshore conventional projects are projected to contribute nearly 700,000 b/d to the anticipated 1.5 million b/d rise in non-OPEC+ production in 2025, according to forecasts from the International Energy Agency (IEA). Meantime, US light tight oil (LTO) increases are expected to decelerate to 320,000 b/d in 2025 from 540,000 b/d in 2024 and 850,000 b/d in 2023, accounting for only 20% of non-OPEC+ supply growth in 2025.
According to IEA, starting in 2024 through December 2025, new non-OPEC+ conventional projects will introduce nearly 2.5 million b/d of new capacity. Brazil will lead in adding offshore capacity next year, followed by Guyana, the US Gulf of Mexico, and Norway.
Over the course of 2025, Brazil plans to introduce 4 new floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) units. In addition to the 300,000 b/d of capacity brought online in 2024, next year’s installations will add another 800,000 b/d of new capacity by December 2025. The projected average utilization rate is just under 70%, slightly up from the current 66% seen year-to-date.
Meanwhile, neighboring Guyana and the ExxonMobil-led consortium have operated the three FPSOs on the Stabroek block at 95% efficiency year-to-date. Next year sees a fourth vessel commissioned in the block, adding a further 250,000 b/d of capacity.
US Gulf of Mexico capacity is expected to expand by 170,000 b/d this year as Chevron’s 70,000 b/d Anchor project and Beacon Offshore Energy’s 20,000 b/d Winterfell project started up in third-quarter 2024, and as Shell’s 80,000 b/d Whale development is slated to start in December.
Next year sees an additional 200,000 b/d of growth as Chevron’s 80,000 b/d Ballymore, Beacon’s 60,000 b/d Shenandoah, and LLOG Exploration's 60,000 b/d Leon-Castile projects are commissioned. The six assets will add a combined 370,000 b/d of capacity to the region between now and end-2025, IEA said.
Across the Atlantic, Norwegian growth is led by the Johan Castberg project that will add 220,000 b/d of capacity in the Barents Sea. Three other major projects – Eldfisk North, Balder X, and Tyrving – will add a further 100,000 b/d among them.
China National Offshore Oil Co. (CNOOC) is commissioning new projects to add 130,000 b/d of capacity split between Bohai Bay and the South China Sea, following successful domestic exploration.
In India, state-controlled Oil and Natural Gas Corp.’s (ONGC) 50,000 b/d KG-DWN-98/2 project aims to offset the country's decline rate this year and next.
Elsewhere, Senegal became a producer in June with first oil from the 100,000 b/d Sangomar FPSO. An additional 80,000 b/d of West African offshore production is slated after Angola’s CLOV Phase 3 and Cote d’Ivoire’s Baleine Phase 2 projects start-up in 2025.
“These volumes don’t come without risks, as was evident at various points this year. Downside risks include major weather events beyond historical norms, renewed labor actions at regulatory agencies or operators, steeper decline rates, and long unplanned maintenance events or platform start-up delays. Upside risks to our forecast include accelerated project schedules or greater operating efficiency than assumed, flatter field declines due to continued maintenance capital and operating expense spend (e.g. infill drilling, major well workovers and well interventions), better-than-expected shale efficiency gains and higher associated NGL output across North American LTO production regions,” IEA said.
