Iran’s oil exports likely to remain 1.1-1.3 million b/d this year

Iran’s oil exports likely will remain at 1.1-1.3 million b/d for the rest of this year despite waivers the US government granted to eight countries after imposing US sanctions on Iranian oil sales, said Sara Vakhshouri, president of SVB Energy International in Washington, DC.

Iran has said its November oil sales were about 1.1 million b/d. SVB Energy listed the eight countries having waivers as China, India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Turkey, Greece, and Italy.

In early November, US President Donald Trump’s administration fully imposed new sanctions on Iran. In May, Trump announced a US exit from an international agreement that had lifted earlier sanctions against Iran by an alliance of countries in exchange for Iran’s cooperation on its nuclear program.

The sanctions are unilateral, but US officials are asking other countries to buy less oil from Iran.

Some traders and analysts have suggested the waivers could increase Iran’s oil exports, but Vakhshouri said she believes that will not happen through Dec. 31 for lack of Iranian shipping capacity.

“We could expect a slight export rise of 100,000-200,000 b/d from the month of January, mostly going to Japan and South Korea,” Vakhshouri said of Iran’s exports. “The only game changer would be China-US tariff negotiations, and if China decides to increase its imports back to normal volume of 550,000-650,000 b/d.”

Most Iranian tankers are delivering oil to Asia so not much extra shipping capacity is left for deliveries of Iranian crude to the European Union, she said.

India most likely will continue importing 280,000-300,000 b/d of Iranian oil, Vakhshouri said, adding she expects that Turkey will continue importing 100,000-120,000 b/d up to a maximum of 150,000 b/d.

Iran’s condensate production will remain as it is, with most condensate exports going to South Korea, she said.