IEA: Russian exports climb to post-invasion high in April, revenues up
Russia's oil exports edged up by 50,000 b/d in April to 8.3 million b/d, the highest level since its invasion of Ukraine, according to the latest assessment from the International Energy Agency (IEA). Crude oil shipments rose by 250,000 b/d, while product exports fell by about 200,000 b/d. Estimated oil export revenues increased by $1.7 billion to $15 billion.
Russian crude oil exports in April were 5.2 million b/d, the highest level since May 2022. Asia's two biggest consumers, China and India, added 2.1 million b/d and 2 million b/d, respectively, and together accounted for nearly 80% of the total. India has boosted purchases by buying more ESPO and other grades in the past 2 months. The European Union (EU) received 400,000 b/d, mostly via pipeline to Hungary and Slovakia and seaborne shipments into Bulgaria. Myanmar imported roughly 70,000 b/d the last several months for the first time since 2021, for onward shipment to China via pipeline. The ‘other destinations’ category includes other FSU countries, the UAE and Cuba.
Exports of products are more diverse. Turkey, China, and India are the primary recipients – receiving about 430,000 b/d, 220,000 b/d, and 180,000 b/d, respectively. The remaining cargoes were spread across the Middle East, South America, Africa, and southeast Asia. The UAE and Saudi Arabia imported 175,000 b/d and 140,000 b/d, respectively, while Brazil lifted 160,000 b/d. Tunisia and Egypt, new buyers of Russian barrels, are now importing more than 50,000 b/d each – mostly gasoil. In Southeast Asia, Singapore took 170,000 b/d and Malaysia over 80,000 b/d, mainly naphtha.
Total product imports by Europe, which temporarily retreated following the product price cap enforcement, have picked up. IEA estimates that gasoil imports rebounded in April to levels comparable to 6 months ago. However, the EU product embargo's impact has led to a 520,000 b/d plunge in gasoil imports from Russia over the same period, to practically zero. This decline has mostly been offset by increased volumes from the Middle East, Asia, and Turkey.
Estimated Russian oil export revenues rose by $1.7 billion to $15 billion in April as higher volumes and a narrower discount for Urals boosted crude revenues by $1.4 billion to $9.6 billion. As a result, total export revenues were 27% lower than a year ago compared with a 40% y-o-y decline in March.
