You have to wonder whether truckers in the US know what else is heading their way.
As 2004 begins, truckers face what Bill Hensel Jr., writing in the Houston Chronicle, has described as "the most sweeping changes in driving rules in 60 years."
The changes combat driver fatigue. They limit the time a driver can work to 14 consecutive hr, including time spent loading and unloading, and mandate 10 hr of rest.
Under the old rules, a driver could work for 15 consecutive hr, excluding loading and unloading, and had more flexibility about rest time.
The American Trucking Association supported the new rules, which try to synchronize work with sleeping cycles.
But some truckers and shippers worry that the changes will reduce their industry's efficiency.
Wal-Mart opposed them. The retail giant estimated the mandates will raise its costs by $24 million/year, largely by forcing it to buy and maintain more trucks.
In a conflict between safety and business, the latter should of course yield when changes truly promise gains in the former.
According to the Chronicle report, the Federal Motor Carrier Administration estimates the new rules will prevent 75 traffic deaths/year and 1,326 crashes/year related to fatigue.
Costs of the new rules arrive with truckers already struggling under recent increases in the price of diesel fuel.
The good news for them is that diesel prices are likely to change soon. The bad news is that the probable direction of change is further upward.
In 2 years, refiners will start delivering highway diesel with very low concentrations of sulfur.
So far, the main route to the sulfur reduction is installation of costly hydrodesulfurization equipment. Big refiners are making those investments now.
Small refiners are considering their options. Unless an efficient and affordable method for catalytic desulfurization emerges soon, small refiners probably will decide that the production of highway diesel isn't their business.
So diesel supply looks set to decline as processing costs rise. Those, of course, aren't the only factors of retail price. Crude prices, for example, might slump.
Prudent, well-rested truckers won't bet their businesses on that kind of relief.
(Online Jan. 5, 2004; author's e-mail: [email protected])
