Tanker freight rates are not high enough to support building new vessels in the 140,000 dwt class capable of carrying 1 million bbl of crude oil.
A report by Drewry Shipping Consultants, London, said 1 million bbl tankers are now the most popular in the medium size range and have increased their share of the total world tanker fleet to 20% from 16% in the last 15 years.
This year's freight rates are about 15% below the rate needed to support investment in new vessels, Drewry said.
WHAT'S AHEAD
The situation is likely to grow worse for tanker owners in the next 2-3 years. Rates aren't likely to reach a level that justifies new investment in 1994 and 1995.
Despite the shadow cast over the tanker market because of the Middle East crisis, Drewry said the outlook for 1 million bbl tankers could be a little rosier than for other sizes of ship.
The fleet of medium size tankers is aging. Very few were built in the 1980's, and 75% of the fleet is at least 13 years old and might have to be replaced in the next 7 years.
The building costs of larger tankers also could benefit medium size vessels. The report said with supertankers of 280,000 dwt or more costing about $80 million, it could be attractive to owners to reduce the size of their risk by ordering smaller ships.
But there also are factors operating against 1 million bbl tankers in favor of supertankers.
Drewry said most of the growth in crude oil trade is likely to come from the Persian Gulf, where supertankers enjoy an economic advantage that would be enhanced if the planned expansion of the Suez Canal proceeds to facilitate handling of larger ships.
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