EIA: Growth in global LNG export capacity will be limited in 2023

In 2023, four new LNG export projects are expected to come online worldwide, with a combined capacity of 1 bcfd (7.5 million tonnes/year (tpy)), according to US Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates based on trade press and company press releases. The total annual LNG capacity additions will be the lowest since 2013, when 700 MMcfd of new export capacity was placed in service, according to the International Group of Liquefied Natural Gas Importers. Between 2014 and 2022, annual LNG capacity additions ranged from a low of 1.8 bcfd in 2021 to a high of 5.6 bcfd in 2018, according to EIA.

New LNG export projects expected to come online this year include:

• Greater Tortue Floating LNG (FLNG) offshore Mauritania and Senegal (0.3 bcfd, bp).
• Tango FLNG offshore the Republic of Congo (0.1 bcfd, Eni SPA). The Tango FLNG plant was previously used to produce LNG from onshore gas in Argentina 2019–20, before charterer YPF SA declared force majeure on its contract with shipowner Exmar due to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.
• Tangguh LNG Train 3 in West Papua, Indonesia (0.5 bcfd, bp Berau Ltd.)
• Sengkang LNG in South Sulawesi, Indonesia (0.1 bcfd, Energy World Corp.). This project was designed to include four 66-MMcfd liquefaction trains, but construction has started on only the first train, and the completion timeline of the project has been extended several times, EIA said.

In 2022, three new LNG export projects with a combined capacity of 2.2 bcfd came online in the US, Russia, and Mozambique. In the US, Venture Global LNG Inc.’s Calcasieu Pass plant with a peak capacity of 1.6 bcfd started production from its 18 mid-scale liquefaction trains. In Russia, PJSC Gazprom’s Portovaya LNG (0.2 bcfd) started production in the summer and loaded its first LNG cargo in September 2022. In Mozambique, Eni-operated Coral South FLNG Production Unit 1 (0.4 bcfd) loaded its first cargo in November 2022.

In the last 11 years (2012–22), Australia and the US led the growth in global LNG capacity, adding a combined 22.7 bcfd, 75% of the total global capacity additions over this period. Regionally, countries in Africa—Algeria, Angola, Cameroon, and Mozambique—built 2.7 bcfd of new LNG export capacity over this period, while Russia added 2.6 bcfd. Countries in the Asia Pacific region (excluding Australia) added a combined 2.4 bcfd of LNG export capacity, according to EIA.

The US began exporting LNG in February 2016, and within 7 years developed the world’s largest LNG export capacity, overtaking Australia and Qatar, with seven LNG export plants totaling 13.9 bcfd of peak production capacity.

In 2024–25, EIA expects fewer global LNG export capacity additions than in previous years. The agency expects US LNG export capacity to grow as the 2.4-bcfd Golden Pass LNG plant (QatarEnergy), 1.8-bcfd Plaquemines LNG plant (Venture Global), and 1.6-bcfd Corpus Christi Stage III expansion (Cheniere Energy Inc.) come online. One LNG export project in Russia—Arctic LNG 2 (20 million tpy, PAO Novatek)—which started construction in 2017, has been delayed and is now tentatively targeting 2023–26 for bringing its three LNG trains online, EIA said. New LNG export projects in Canada and Mexico are also expected to be placed into service by 2025–26.

Spot trade shrinking

At the same time export capacity growth is slowing, spot LNG trade is shrinking. Analysis by Independent Commodity Intelligence Services (ICIS) shows that the share of spot LNG fell to 27% in 2022 from 31% in 2021. The number of spot cargoes was roughly steady—up in Europe and down elsewhere—but the number of cargoes sold under long-term contracts rose sharply in 2022, especially into China, which pushed its contract share to 71% last year from 65% in 2021. A large portion of LNG shipped into Europe also arrived as part of portfolio shipments, with no sale involved, according to ICIS.