The six-month-long hurricane season in the Atlantic basin, which began June 1, could be especially active this year. This is the consensus of meteorologists and other experts who specialize in forecasting these weather phenomena.
The Colorado State University forecast team predicts an above-average 2010 Atlantic basin hurricane season based on the premise that El Niño conditions will dissipate by this summer and that anomalously warm tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures will persist.
The team predicts 15 named storms to form in the Atlantic basin between June 1 and Nov. 30 with eight expected to be hurricanes and four developing into major hurricanes (Saffir/Simpson category 3-4-5) with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.
Long-term averages are 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 major hurricanes per year.
"We expect current moderate El Niño conditions to transition to neutral conditions by this year's hurricane season," said Phil Klotzbach, lead forecaster on the CSU hurricane forecast team. "The dissipating El Niño, along with the expected anomalously warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures, will lead to favorable dynamic and thermodynamic conditions for hurricane formation and intensification."
Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), part of Aon Benfield Research's new academic and industry collaboration, anticipates Atlantic basin and US landfalling hurricane activity to be 55% above the long-term (1950-2009) norm.
"At present, every main indicator points to hurricane activity being well-above norm in 2010," says Professor Mark Saunders of TSR. "This above-norm level is expected to be even higher if La Niña develops during the second half of 2010. Even now there is a high likelihood that hurricane activity in 2010 will be in the top third of years historically."
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says that the waters in the Atlantic basin have stored "significant warming" over the past few years, which is believed to contribute not only to hurricane formation, but to their intensity as well.
Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, powerful storms that struck the Gulf Coast in 2005, wreaked the following havoc on about 3,000 platforms and 22,000 miles of pipelines that were in the hurricanes' direct path:
- 52 platforms had major damage.
- 19 of the floating drill units that were exposed to hurricane force winds went adrift or were damaged.
- 115 platforms were destroyed.
- Eight rigs were destroyed.
- 535 pipeline segments were damaged.
The loss of just one deepwater production platform is significant, perhaps a $1 billion or larger loss. Multiple offshore rigs and platforms easily run into the billions of dollars. In addition, the loss of production is a blow to the nation's supplies — Gulf of Mexico production accounts for a quarter of domestic oil production and about an eighth of natural gas production.
Insurance generally covers damage to equipment but not lost production, which can be a significant blow, especially to smaller operators.
Natural disasters like hurricanes can cause immense devastation, but thorough insurance coverage and proper claims filings can help companies recover more quickly in the aftermath of a storm. Risk management firms say that hurricanes can't be prevented, but what can be controlled is how you prepare for them. That and talking with your insurance provider to ensure adequate coverage for your company's needs are the two most important steps you can take to minimize loss and to recover quickly after a loss.
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