Patrick Crow
Washington, D.C.
[email protected]
It's premature to predict Mohammed Khatami's election as Iran's president will lead to rapprochement with the U.S., but it is an excuse to hope.
The election was remarkable. More than 29 million people, or about 90% of eligible voters, went to the polls. Khatami, a so-called moderate, got 69% of the vote.
Many Iranians thought the election would be rigged in favor of A* Akbar Nouri, the speaker of Iran's parliament. He had the support of religious leader Ayatollah A* Khamenei, who holds the real power in Iran.
But a few days before the election, Khamenei declared his neutrality and urged poll workers to watch for fraud.
Khatami is a moderate but in the spectrum of radical Iranian politics. He is a Shiite Muslim cleric, one of only four candidates to pass a conservative clerical council's ideological purity screening, and an ardent supporter of the 1979 revolution. He was culture minister for more than a decade.
Outgoing President A* Akbar Rafsanjani backed Khatami. But like Rafsanjani, Khatami will be caught between radicals and arch-conservatives, and may be unable to effect much change.
Diplomatic standoff
Iran is crucial to the world oil market.
It is the third largest exporter and a neighbor to Caspian Sea and Persian Gulf nations with giant reserves.
Claiming Iran has sponsored terrorism, the U.S. has banned Iranian oil imports and threatens to retaliate against firms-foreign or domestic- that help Iran develop energy projects.
Khatami can do little to soften Iranian-U.S. relations, because Khamenei will retain control of foreign policy.
After his election, Khatami said, "Any change in the relations with the U.S. is dependent on changes in policies of America toward the revolution and Iran, and, unfortunately, we do not see any sign of such changes."
President Bill Clinton termed the Iranian election "interesting and hopeful" and carefully observed that the U.S. bears no ill will toward Iranians, it only objects to Iran's actions.
He also reiterated the U.S. position: Iran must renounce terrorism, quit trying to derail Middle East peace efforts, and stop developing nuclear and chemical weapons.
Democracy touted
Kamal Kharrazi, Iran's ambassador to the United Nations, told a recent New York City conference on Caspian oil projects, "This election demonstrated that Iran is the most stable state in the region. The democratic process through which the Iranian people chose their new president in a peaceful and civil manner is outstanding in a region marked by strife, civil wars, military intervention, and the meddling of foreign powers.
"The election necessitates more attention to domestic economic needs with particular attention to the younger, post-revolutionary generations who actively participated in this democratic process. This by itself requires a more peaceful regional and international environment for Iran.
"The new administration will continue the policy of decreasing tensions with others in the realm of foreign relations...with a greater vigor and mandate."
Those are encouraging words.
Copyright 1997 Oil & Gas Journal. All Rights Reserved.
