Global butadiene demand expected to slow through 2003

World Butadiene Demand [151,812 bytes]

The growth in worldwide demand for butadiene is expected to slow through 2003.

Demand for butadiene will increase at an average rate of 3.4%/year during 1997-2003, according to the latest study by Chemical Market Associates Inc. (CMAI), Houston.

This rate is 36% lower than the average rate of 5.5%/year in 1993-97 (OGJ, Feb. 2, 1998, p. 32).

Breakout by region

Regions of the world with the fastest growing demand for butadiene are Southeast Asia, Indian subcontinent, the Middle East, and the former Soviet Union (FSU).

FSU demand is expected to rebound from the dips seen in the early 1990s. North and South America will experience the lowest rates of demand growth. The smallest consuming region of the world for butadiene will be Africa, while Northeast Asia will be the largest consuming region after passing North America in 2003.

Butadiene capacity is expected to grow at a rate of 2.7%/year during 1997-2003. A total of more than 945,000 metric tons/year of new capacity is expected to come on stream in Northeast and Southeast Asia-notably China, Taiwan, Thailand, and Indonesia during the period. Local demand within these countries, however, will not reach production levels, forcing an increase in exports to other countries, primarily North America.

In 1998, butadiene plant operating rates reached 81.8%. Utilization will increase to 86% of design capacity as global demand growth outpaces the rate of capacity additions.

Breakdown by derivatives

About 63% of the total demand for butadiene in 1998 will be concentrated in the synthetic rubber, derivatives of butadiene, such as chloroprene rubber, nitrile rubber, polybutadiene rubber, and styrene-butadiene rubber.

During 1997-2003, demand growth for butadiene in the production of adiponitrile is expected to average 5.8%-the highest average annual rate of growth for all butadiene derivatives. This growth rate is somewhat dependent on the new capacity expected to come on stream in China by 2003, says CMAI.

During 1997-2003, the overall increase in consumption of butadiene will be led a surge in demand for polybutadiene, expected to rise by more than 400,000 tons/year during the periold.