The article "Myanmar faces energy crisis despite potential" could have been written 10 years ago (OGJ, Aug. 30, 1999, p. 42). It would have been just as incorrect then as I suspect it is now.
Officially, since the mid-1980s, the country has had decreasing crude oil production. As these figures included produced water, the true peak occurred 5 years earlier. With importation virtually forbidden by the government, there has been a corresponding shortage of all petroleum products since then.
I cannot comment on hydroelectric potential, but potential crude reserves, as quoted by international aid agencies, were demonstrated to be grossly overstated when compared to the first professional appraisal in many years, carried out in 1988. The gap between the hype of the Energy Minister's 14 billion bbl of potential reserves and OGJ's pragmatic 50 million bbl of proven reserves is a measure of the exaggeration.
The uncritical acceptance of these type of figures contributed to the unnecessary construction of the Mann refinery. Its capacity was way in excess of what would be required based on any realistic assessment of crude reserves. In addition, being up-country, it was in the wrong position to handle any imported crude. A renovation of the existing coastal Rangoon refinery would have been adequate for all the national production.
Any government that sold gasoline at 10% of the spot price while rationing private cars to a few gallons per month was far from moving to a market-oriented economy. At this time, the gas stations were filling up cars which often had no engines (I joke not), but still the owner took his entitlement before pushing his jalopy around the corner where the petrol would be siphoned off and resold at the current market rate. With a paper currency that worked in multiples of 45 (i.e. notes of 45, 90, 135 etc.), Burma, as it was then, was an Alice-in-Wonderland country. I wonder if it has changed all that much?
Mike Lillico
Mallorca, Spa
