The Department of Energy sees significant opportunities for exports of U.S. energy technologies and services during the next 20 years.
DOE said the U.S. share of such exports has been declining in recent years, but it should be able to retain its present market share of about 10% of potential exports.
A DOE study said the U.S. should develop expanded export assistance programs-financing, market assessment, and the like-that are comparable to those offered by other countries and improve interagency coordination on promotion of energy technology exports and services.
It said, "One expert estimates that half of the current U.S. share of the Venezuelan oil and gas technology market, most of the Southeast Asia renewable energy technology market, and nearly all of India's energy technologies markets could be lost without active U.S. export assistance and promotion policies."
WORLD MARKET
DOE said the worldwide market for oil and gas exploration and production equipment and services (EPES), except for China and the former Soviet block, was $38.2 billion in 1990 but will grow to $1.3 trillion/year in 19912010. It figures U.S. vendors can capture $955 billion, or 74%, of that market.
Sales by U.S. firms and their foreign subsidiaries of EPES overseas were $15.2 billion in 1990.
DOE said the total value of U.S. exports in 1990 was much smaller, however, and was largely composed of $1.35 billion in equipment exports.
U.S. exports consist of equipment manufactured in the U.S. plus the labor conducted at U.S. locations to provide exploration and production services to other countries.
Most of the E&P equipment sold abroad by U.S. vendors is manufactured in non-U.S. manufacturing operations, and most of the E&P services sold abroad by U.S. vendors is provided by employing people in non-U.S. operations.
U.S. vendors' share of the market in oil and gas EPES during the next 20 years is projected to be about $551 billion, or about 58% of the market that is potentially open to U.S. firms.
"The financial, institutional, regulatory barriers to U.S. vendors' sales vary regionally," DOE said. "Because relatively few Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development countries have enough oil reserves to support a major oil industry, there will be few sales to major U.S. trading partners such as Germany and Japan.
"However, former Communist countries offer an enormous growth market for the industry. Most countries in the rest of the world, including Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries members and non-OPEC countries have national oil companies that restrict entry by U.S. firms into that sector.
"Perhaps the most compelling factor in favor of EPES exports to developing countries is the rapid pace of technological change.
"Many developing countries need to maintain oil production to earn foreign exchange and cannot afford to wait for development of their domestic technical expertise.
"National political objectives may favor self-sufficiency, but their short term financial requirements may compel them to import EPES equipment and services."
GROWTH AREAS
The former Communist or centrally planned economy countries, including the former Soviet Union, eastern Europe, and China offer an "enormous" growth market for the EPES industry,
"The former Soviet Union is the most attractive market of all because its economy has developed a high degree of reliance on oil production and oil exports that may be difficult to sustain without state of the art technology.
"Three major barriers impede participation by private firms: the chaotic state of the economy, the difficulty of expatriating profits in hard currency and getting paid in hard currency, and laws restricting private ownership.
"If a market economy develops successfully in the former Soviet Union, the opportunities for the U.S. oil industry brighten, particularly for the EPES industry."
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