Scrapping old, high emission automobiles could be a feasible way to reduce urban air pollution in the U.S., says the congressional Office of Technology Assessment.
OTA, in a study for Congress, said older vehicles produce a disproportionate share of total U.S. vehicle air emissions.
Data show that cars of 1971 or earlier vintage make up about 3.4% of total auto registrations and only 1.7% of miles driven yet produce 7.5% of the hydrocarbon, 7.6% of the carbon monoxide, and 4.7% of the nitrogen oxide emissions of the nationwide fleet, OTA said.
Its report noted Union Oil Co. of California began a program in 1990 to scrap 7,000 model year 1970 and older cars in the Los Angeles Basin. The vehicles scrapped in the program emitted 65 times more hydrocarbons and 50 times more carbon monoxide than new cars.
Bills are awaiting action in Congress to stimulate vehicle scrapping programs, and the Bush administration has announced a plan to give companies pollution credits if they scrap old vehicles.
PLUSES, MINUSES
OTA said reducing the number of older cars on the road promotes overall fuel efficiency. But a scrap program also reduces the supply of less costly cars for poor people and affects used car dealers and the used auto parts business.
OTA said, "It is quite likely that a carefully designed early retirement program targeted at areas that are out of compliance with air quality standards can achieve environmental benefits at costs equal to or lower than those of other emissions reduction options that are in use or scheduled to be used."
It added the programs have the added advantages of significant gasoline savings and increased fleet safety.
"If we valued the public benefits of gasoline savings--lower oil imports and improved energy security--at 50 cents/gal or more, total benefits would equal or exceed costs in all cases examined," OTA said.
But the emissions benefits from a vehicle retirement program may decline after two requirements of the 1990 Clean Air Act amendments--reformulated gasoline and more stringent auto inspection and maintenance programs--take widespread effect.
OTA said the favorable cost effectiveness of scrappage programs in nonattainment areas does not apply to programs in areas complying with air quality standards. And some programs might attract many vehicles that otherwise would be little used, providing low emission and conservation benefits.
In the absence of nationwide experience with vehicle scrapping programs, there are many unknowns in estimating likely costs and benefits, and new programs should be considered experimental and monitored carefully.
Rep. Phil Sharp (D-Ind.), House energy and power subcommittee chairman, said, "The results of this study are heartening. Accelerated auto scrappage programs not only offer the opportunity to reduce air pollution in a cost effective manner and improve overall fuel economy but also may stimulate the sale of new cars. It is a win-win proposition for the country."
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