The oil industry accounts for about 47% of sulfur dioxide emissions in Europe.
If no reductions were achieved beyond present plans, industry's share would increase to more than 70%.
Those figures, produced by the European Commission, reflect considerable pressure on the oil industry to reduce emissions.
A 7 month study by Arthur D. Little Ltd., London, has revealed that $20 billion must be spent by refiners in EC members during the next decade.
This would be mainly for hydrodesulfurization and hydrocracking plants, along with flue gas desulfurization and residue gasification equipment.
The result would be a reduction of about 1 million metric tons/year in the oil industry's sulfur production, while total sulfur recovery by 2000 would be raised from 50% under current quality standards to 70%.
The oil industry expressed its concerns at a symposium organized by the Dutch Environmental Ministry (VROM) involving European governments, oil companies, and environmentalists. In particular, delegates queried the effect of investments, equal to about $1.25/bbl of crude oil, on profits and structure of the European refining industry.
Refiners said they preferred emissions control to direct fuel sulfur limits, giving them some flexibility in investment and feedstock/fuel purchasing. Environmentalists replied that process integrated solutions were preferable to end-of-pipe techniques.
Balancing the economic factors is like trying to hold water in your hands. Uncertainty about future fuel oil demand--and thus the need for refining--creates doubts about investing in conversion and/or desulfurization.
Natural gas supply and prices are uncertain in the mid to late 1990s, so switching refinery fuel to gas could increase gas demand when supplies are scarce. Product desulfurization costs depend on feedstock quality. So the sulfur premium on sweet crude would rise. And so on.
The sulfur cleanup campaign would represent a cost of $6-7 billion/year for a decade.
The symposium, having estimated the cost of sulfur reduction measures, could not provide a definitive answer on which is the best method. The EC wants to try all the measures at once, limiting emissions sources in petroleum and solid fuels by a combination of emissions and product sulfur limits. To this end, it will finish laying out its policy during its 1993 work program.
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