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PETROCHEMICAL CONSUMPTION SEEN SURGING IN EASTERN ASIA

Feb. 3, 1992

Growth of petrochemical consumption in eastern Asia will double worldwide rates in the 1990s, Chem Systems Inc. predicts. Large increases in eastern Asia's petrochemical capacity during the decade, especially in South Korea, will move the region toward self-sufficiency and place downward pressure on prices, the Tarrytown, N.Y., firm said. The region's supply-demand balance will vary by product. Chem Systems expects high density polyethylene deficits to persist, while shortfalls of

Growth of petrochemical consumption in eastern Asia will double worldwide rates in the 1990s, Chem Systems Inc. predicts.

Large increases in eastern Asia's petrochemical capacity during the decade, especially in South Korea, will move the region toward self-sufficiency and place downward pressure on prices, the Tarrytown, N.Y., firm said.

The region's supply-demand balance will vary by product. Chem Systems expects high density polyethylene deficits to persist, while shortfalls of styrene and polypropylene decline substantially.

By 2000, eastern Asia's demand for olefins and commodity polymers will account for 14% and 20% of world consumption, respectively. Japan will consume another 8-11% of world petrochemical supplies, depending on the product.

Chem Systems predicts South Korean ethylene and derivative capacities by 1993 each will increase to almost 3.5 million metric tons/year. Meantime, ethylene plants will go on stream in Taiwan, Malaysia, and Japan.

The most significant increases in petrochemical capacity will occur in 1995-96 in Thailand, India, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia. Chem Systems expects China to add considerable capacity near the end of the decade.

Chem Systems' forecast covers markets in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, China, Hong Kong, Asean countries, India, and Australia. It covers ethylene, ethylene glycol, propylene, polypropylene, polyolefins, styrene, polystyrene, benzene, vinyl chloride monomer, and polyvinyl chloride.