Just how dependent is the U.S. on imported oil?
As the U.S. uses more and more oil importsand thus becomes more vulnerable to supply disruptionsthat number becomes more important.
William Skinner, an Energy Information Administration analyst, said in a recent report, "Surprisingly enough, even using the same data on U.S. oil trade and consumption, different parties compute and publicize different numbers for import dependence and especially for how the dependence has varied over the past two decades."
EIA calculation
EIA divides net petroleum and products imports by products supplied to get the percentage of dependence. In 1994, products supplied averaged 17,718,000 b/d and net imports were 8,054,000 b/d, so dependence was 45.5%.
"This number represents the net inflow of foreign oil as a percentage of total oil consumption," Skinner said. "By this measure, U.S. dependence has never reached 50% on an annual basis, peaking in 1977 at 46.5%.
"Calculating dependence in this way implicitly assumes that differences among petroleum products are not significant in terms of overall dependence, e.g., that exports of petroleum coke offset imports of lighter products that are more in demand.
"There is a further implicit assumption that, in the event of a disruption in imports, exports would not continue unabated."
Skinner said some other analysts divide total crude and products imports (without subtracting exports) by products supplied. Because total imports averaged 8,996,000 b/d in 1994, they calculate U.S. dependence was a more dramatic 50.8% last year.
Best indicator
Skinner argues that using net imports in the numerator of the calculation yields the best indicator of import dependence because U.S. petroleum exports do not make the country more dependent on foreign suppliers.
For instance, he said, if Congress allows exports of Alaskan North Slope crude, and 1 million b/d is exported next year and offset by imports, "dependence as measured by net imports would remain unchanged at 48%. But under the total imports yardstick, it would be 59.1%."
EIA predicts the U.S. will use 18,129,000 b/d of products next year and require 8,694,000 b/d of net imports for a dependency of 48%.
Skinner said U.S. reliance on oil imports will continue to increase.
"In the longer term, EIA forecasts that net import dependence will grow to about 58% by 2005 and remain at that level through 2010."
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