A need for gas to fuel a growing number of power generating plants is the chief spark for surging natural gas demand in Southeast Asia.
Many countries' economies continue to expand in the region.
Wood Mackenzie Consultants Ltd., Edinburgh, predicts gas consumption will account for 24% of Southeast Asia's primary energy demand by 2010, up from only 4% in 1980.
The analyst expects the region's gas demand to reach 12 bcfd by 2010, up from 0.5 bcfd in 1980.
Brunei, Malaysia, and Indonesia will remain major gas exporters during the next 20 years. Total gas production in Southeast Asia will reach 17 bcfd in 2010, up from 2.1 bcfd in 1980.
Wood Mackenzie said gas will provide 25% of Southeast Asia's industrial energy needs by 2010, up from 11% in 1980. This equates to 2.89 bcfd in total for 2010, up from 215 MMcfd.
The analyst highlighted four Southeast Asian countries with energy markets at different stages of development to show how gas markets in the region are expected to evolve.
VIET NAM
The energy market in Viet Nam is relatively underdeveloped, said Wood Mackenzie. As a result, government has set priorities for energy sources and supply systems.
"We currently believe real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in Viet Nam will average around 6%/year over the next 10-15 years," the analyst said.
"On this basis, we estimate overall energy demand will rise at a similar rate until 2010. Within this overall increase, we expect electricity demand to grow at a rate of around 9%/year to 2010."
Viet Nam's only commercial gas production is from Tien Hai onshore field, which produced about 500 Mcfd during-1981-94, largely for power generation.
The only other developed gas reserves in Viet Nam are in offshore Bach Ho field, and those are associated with oil.
The South Con Son basin holds three gas discoveries, all of them development prospects: a total 2 tcf of nonassociated gas in the Block 6 Lan Tay and Lan Do prospects and an estimated 1 tcf reserves in the Block 5-3 Moc Tinh prospect.
Bach Ho field, operated by Vietsovpetro, is producing about 125,000 b/d of oil and 70 MMcfd of gas. The gas was flared until last May, but Petrovietnam recently completed a 125 km pipeline to take the gas to a 268,000 kw power station near Vung Tau.
Later this year, a compressor platform will be installed in Bach Ho, and a 130 km pipeline extension will transport gas to Ho Chi Minh City and to another power plant at Thu Due.
"The indications from exploration activity so far is that there could be significant gas potential offshore Viet Nam," Wood Mackenzie said, "particularly in the South Con Son Basin. Based on existing data we expect gas production could reach 1 bcfd by 2010."
Gas is expected to have a 58% share of the power generation fuel market by 2010, boosting gas demand in this sector from less than 50 MMcfd at present to about 725 MMcfd by 2010.
INDONESIA
Indonesia's economy has grown an average 5-8%/year since 1908, Wood Mackenzie said, causing an increase in total energy demand of about 5% a year.
The gas industry has focused on exports, with Indonesia being the world's largest exporter of liquefied natural gas. Indonesia last year exported more than 26 million metric tons of LNG, mainly to Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea.
"However, with government's strategy now clearly aimed at displacing oil with nonexportable gas in domestic energy markets, use of gas in the domestic market is increasing," Wood Mackenzie said.
Domestic gas sales averaged 1.2 bcfd in 1994, or 16% of Indonesia's total production. Almost half of this fuels four large fertilizer plants. The rest goes to five power stations.
Industrial demand is expected to rise in the next 10-15 years, from 545 MMcfd in 1990 to about 1.3 bcfd in 2010.
"We do not see any conflict between Indonesia's traditional LNG markets and a developing domestic market," Wood Mackenzie said. "Gas fields that have already been developed or will be developed to produce LNG are mostly remote from major industrial or population centers and would not have been developed except for export.
"Fields that have been and are being developed for domestic markets are small and could only realistically supply local markets. We estimate Indonesia will have up to 27 billion cu m/year of gas for export by 2000 and 26 billion cu m/year by 201 0.
THAILAND
Thailand's GDP has grown by 7.5%/year in the last 5 years, Wood Mackenzie reckons, with energy demand growth of more than 8%/year and power demand growth of 15%/year.
Gas demand in Thailand is linked closely to expansion of the power sector. Electricity demand is expected to grow by an average 14%/year during 1990-2000 and by 5%/year in 20002010.
"The state electricity utility has gained approval to build a range of gasfired plants," Wood Mackenzie said. "With the recent move in public opinion against lignite, the use of gas will take on added importance."
The analyst forecast that gas' share of fuel demand for power generation will remain more than 35% by 2010 at about 2.2 bcfd.
Industry will increase gas demand to 320 MMcfd in 2010 from about 90 MMcfd last year. The gas will serve mainly as feedstock for petrochemicals.
Household gas use will remain small, with electrical power and oil continuing to be the fuels in demand.
Thailand always will be a large importer of energy, Wood Mackenzie predicted.
Gas production in Thailand will reach a maximum 1.7 bcfd in 2000, declining to 1 bcfd by 2010. Liquids production will peak at 60,000 b/d in the mid-1990s.
MALAYSIA
Malaysia's economy has grown at an average 8.6%/year during the past 5 years, spurring a 8.9%/year rise in energy demand and a 13.2%/year increase in power demand.
Gas accounted for 42% of Malaysia's total energy demand in 1994, with the gas sector encouraged by government policy. The country's current gas reserves are an estimated 75 tcf.
Malaysia's gas production is expected to increase from about 3.5 bcfd in 1994 to 5.7 bcfd in 2010.
Expansion of the Bintulu LNG export plant, which currently consumes 1.25 bcfd of gas, is expected to boost LNG exports to 16 million metric tons/year starting in 1997 and even higher if ideas of a third Bintulu LNG train bear fruit.
"Indigenous demand for gas in Malaysia will continue on an upward path," Wood Mackenzie said, "rising from around 1.6 bcfd in 1994 to 3.5 bcfd in 2010.
"A dramatic substitution of coal and oil with gas-fired power generation is expected, with gas taking up to 70% of the power generation market before the end of the decade, resulting in an 82% increase in the amount of gas used in electricity generation by 2000.
"By that stage, we estimate gas used in power generation will reach 1.1 bcfd, rising to about 1.7 bcfd by 2010."
