Iraqi oil exports could climb to 2.6 million b/d 1 year after the United Nations' embargo on those exports is lifted.
And 2 years after sanctions have ended Iraqi oil exports could average 2.9 million b/d.
Those predictions are by Nicolas Sarkis, manager of the Arab Petroleum Research Centre, Paris.
Sarkis made the comments at a conference in Paris organized by the French student branch of the Society of Petroleum Engineers.
He said Baghdad plans to implement a program of phased increases in productive capacity, rising to 4 million b/d in 2000 and 6 million b/d in 2010.
Those plans hinge on development or further development of 33 fields with a potential productive capacity of 4.65 million b/d. The fields were identified earlier by Washington, D.C., consultant Thomas Stauffer (see table, OGJ, Apr. 10, P. 112).
PIPELINE CONSTRAINTS
Iraq's potential postsanction export capacity compares favorably with its peak oil productive capacity of 3.5 million b/d in 1979.
But Sarkis told Oil & Gas journal he considers his forecasts optimistic because "the obstacles to such exports are pipelines, which will need time to become fully operational."
Sarkis believes it is more reasonable to project that 1 year after sanctions, Iraqi pipelines could move 1.2 million b/d of export crude to Turkey and 1.2 million b/d to the Persian Gulf. In that case, total exports within a year would not exceed 2.4 million b/d.
Iraq is hemmed in by other countries on all sides except for a small outlet to the Persian Gulf at the mouth of the Shatt al-Arab waterway.
A pipeline through Syria from Kirkuk to Banias and through Lebanon to Tripoli has been idle since 1982 because of a conflict with Syria.
The strategic pipeline system that links Haditha in the north with Rumaila in the south needs rehabilitation. It consists of two pipelines that can move 980,000 b/d from north to south and 880,000 b/d from south to north.
Using a 1.65 million b/d pipeline to Yanbu, Saudi Arabia, requires an agreement with Riyadh, which is not likely.
The 1 million b/d pipeline through Turkey is the only other means for Iraq to export its oil, but that also poses problems because it passes through rebel Kurd territory.
IRAQ POTENTIAL
Iraq's huge untapped proved reserves underpin Sarkis' view of the country's productive potential.
He notes that Iraq is one of the few countries where giant and even supergiant fields have been discovered but remain undeveloped and where the probability of further discoveries is among the highest.
Sarkis contends Iraq's "checkered history" of the past 30 years has considerably slowed its exploration and development. The 3 decades span nationalization of Iraq Petroleum Co. (IPC), the 8 year war with Iran, and the invasion of Kuwait and subsequent oil export embargo.
Proved Iraqi oil reserves total 112 billion bbl, Sarkis said, ranking Iraq second only to Saudi Arabia. Combined proved reserves of associated and nonassociated gas are an estimated 105 tcf.
Independent sources estimate Iraq's probable reserves at 180-200 billion bbl, Sarkis said. These lie in 73 fields, including nine supergiants, of which only 15 have been developed. Of probable reserves, 76% is in Cretaceous reservoirs, 23.9% in Tertiary, and 0.1% in Jurassic-Triassic.
Drilling depths in Iraq have never exceeded 1,790 m, compared with a 2,330 m maximum drilling depth in Saudi Arabia, 3,210 m in Iran, and 5,070 m in Qatar. That explains the low level of reserves discovered in pre-Cretaceous horizons.
Sarkis also pointed out all of Iraq's 378 producing wells as recently as 1989 flowed with natural reservoir pressure and featured high productivity Iraq's average oil production then was 6,030 b/d/well, compared with Iran's average 3,035 b/d/well, U.A.E.'s average 1,615 b/d/well, and an Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' average 778 b/d/well.
PREWAR DISCOVERIES, PLANS
Since IPC's discoveries in the early 1970s of main producing fields in North and Southeast Iraq (see map), other fields have turned up in various regions of Iraq.
These include Central Iraq, where a major find was made east of Baghdad, and West Iraq, where Akaz oil and gas field was discovered in 1993 near the Syrian border.
Petroconsultants, Geneva, confirmed existence of these discoveries in a study completed last March, which also concluded that Iraq's oil and gas basins are part of the vast Arabian shelf consisting of the Arabian basin and Zagros fold belt.
Before the 1990-91 Persian Gulf crisis, Iraq's plans for boosting productive capacity to 6 million b/d from 3.5 million b/d focused initially on Khurmala Dome (Kirkuk) field 100,000 b/d, Humreen 60,000 b/d, North Rumaila extension 360,000 b/d, West Qurna 125,000 b/d, and Luhais extension 30,000 b/d.
At a Baghdad oil seminar in March, officials said bombing sorties during the war cut productive capacity to 1.1 million b/d in March 1991, mainly in northern fields. North and South Rumaila production facilities were knocked out, as were the PSI, Tuba, Zb1, and Zb2 storage facilities, Al-Bakr marine export terminal, and pump stations of the north-south pipeline. Iraqi production fell to as low as 75,000 b/d.
Since then, productive capacity has rebounded to 3.5 million b/d and export capacity to 2.6 million b/d. However, further production would come back on line at a rate much lower than that because of lack of key equipment and chemicals.
NEW PLANS (118322 bytes)
To meet Iraq's ambitious production targets, Sarkis noted, Baghdad plans to develop 25 nonproducing fields and further develop eight other partially developed fields.
Development of these 33 fields and related downstream work will require an outlay of about $30 billion during 58 years after the embargo is lifted. This breaks out as $25 billion for exploration and production, storage, transportation, and export terminals and $5 billion for downstream projects such as gas treating/processing and refining.
In gas operations, and not included in the $5 billion downstream work, Iraq plans to replace or expand pipelines, develop liquefied natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas complexes, lay LPG pipelines, and increase storage capacity.
Iraq is negotiating service or production sharing contracts with foreign companies for new field development, including more than 10 fields with a combined productive capacity of 3 million b/d.
Among project contracts under discussion are Iraq's four undeveloped supergiant fields: Majnoun (Elf Aquitaine), Nahr Umr (Total), West Qurna (Russia's Lukoil), and Halfaya (undisclosed). Agip SPA is negotiating for development of Nasiriya, which along with Gharaf and Rafidain is part of the Gharaf axis in southern Iraq.
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