DOE SEES CHANCE OF WINTER POWER SHORTFALLS

The U.S. East could face shortfalls of electrical power this winter because of a lack of generating capacity for peak demand periods, the Department of Energy warns.

The U.S. gas industry has hoped to capitalize on a growing need for adding power generating capacity quickly, notably in the U.S. Northeast.

Industry studies have pointed to gas fired power generation as having the shortest lead time among power plant fuel options. In addition, industry has criticized the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission for not expediting permitting of proposed pipelines to move more gas to the U.S. East (OGJ, Nov. 5, p. 13).

DOE's office of energy emergencies predicted other areas of the U.S. will have adequate power capacity, assuming a normal winter and no large scale failure of systems.

In the event of power supply shortfalls, utilities can turn to short term purchases of electrical power capacity beyond those currently scheduled, DOE said.

PROBLEM AREAS

Seven regions adjusted generating capacity reserve margins below or almost below the 5% level considered necessary for minimum operating security, DOE said.

That compares with reserve margins of 8-58%, mostly 10 25%, elsewhere in the country. Here are the potential problem regions and their reserve margins:

Cincinnati-Dayton-Hamilton Electric Region of Ohio 0.9%.
Virginia-Carolina Group, covering North and South Carolina and most of Virginia 2.6%.
Western Pennsylvania-North Central Ohio Group 2.7%.
Allegheny Power System, covering West Virginia and Central Pennsylvania 3.9%.
New York Power Pool 4.1%.
Tennessee Valley Authority, covering Tennessee, parts of northern Mississippi, Georgia, and Alabama and parts of Kentucky and North Carolina 5.2%.
Florida Coordinating Group, covering all of peninsular Florida 5.2%.

Despite a reserve margin of more than 5%, DOE included TVA because of uncertainty about data and the Florida region because of a possible repeat of December 1989's unusually cold weather that caused power outages there when the reserve margin was 0.4%.