REFINERS' FUTURES HINGE LARGELY ON UNDECIDED ISSUES

Several undecided issues will fine tune the direction of fuel reformulation and set the pace for the petroleum processing industry for the balance of the century.

That's the outlook voiced by George H. Unzelman of HyOx Inc., Fallbrook, Calif.

He lists the issues as:

• Reformulated gasoline oxygen - oxygenate choice and mandates.

• Nitrogen oxides' impact.

• Light olefins and evaporative emissions.

• Heavy hydrocarbons in reformulated gasoline.

• Corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards and their effects on gasoline.

• Alternative energy sources for transportation fuels.

Unzelman predicted the fate of those unresolved elements at the National Petroleum Refiners Association annual meeting in San Antonio.

He said U.S. gasoline will average about 2.5 wt % oxygen by 2005.

The oxygenates used to achieve this level will be mainly ethers blended at the refinery.

Survival of ethanol and ethyl ethers will depend more on subsidy and political value than on technical value as a superior gasoline blending component, Unzelman said.

His long term predictions for the gasoline pool include:

• Oxygenates will replace aromatics significantly.

• C5 olefins will be removed from direct blending by 2005 and diverted to ether and alkylation feed.

• Rvp control will depend on n-butane and pentanes, mainly isopentane.

• CAFE standards will increase.

• Octane quality will increase 1-2 numbers, due to either higher premium/regular ratio or higher quality regular gasoline.

• Low aromatic diesel fuel-20 vol % or less-will slow the shift to alternative energy sources for compression ignition engines.

Unzelman predicted alternatives to gasoline will replace little of the U.S. gasoline pool by 2005.