The international Energy Agency predicts world energy demand will grow 50% by 2010.
Growth will be dominated by Southeast Asia, particularly China, IEA Executive Director Helga Steeg told a Centre for Global Energy Studies conference in London.
Organization for Economic Cooperation & Development (OECD) countries in the Pacific and Asia will increase their share of oil consumption to 30% by 2010 from the present 23%, Steeg said. While world energy consumption is rising by 50% by 2010, the non-OECD share of total energy consumption will increase to 55%.
Steeg said IEA's latest forecast is based on a 1993 oil price of $17/bbl, rising to $28/bbl by 2005 and remaining steady until 2010.
Under those conditions, IEA expects world primary energy demand to increase 2.1%/year until 2010. This will break out to OECD increases of 1.3%/year, former Soviet Union 0.3%/year, and the rest of the world 4.2%/year.
"The share of oil in the energy mix is assumed to be in decline," Steeg said, "although total volumes of oil will grow. Oil will remain the single largest fuel, but natural gas will have the largest growth rate."
IEA predicts a 45 million b/d rise in OECD oil consumption by 2010. Oil demand will be dominated by transportation. For transportation there are no alternatives to oil without drastic policy changes, Steeg said.
In Russia, IEA sees declines in oil production continuing until the late 1990s. Steeg said Russia oil production will return to 1991 levels only by 2010.
She also said there is a need to seek new oil reserves, even at today's prices: "The present price has not discouraged companies from negotiating for new developments--in the former Soviet Union, for example".
This is because costs of oil recovery have been reduced tremendously by oil companies, and demand forecasts justify going for new reserves.
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