The world market for petroleum coke will continue strong growth through the end of the 1990s.
Total 1992 production is estimated at 32.7 million tons, compared with projected 1998 production of 46.6 million tons, a 42.5% increase,
This is the conclusion of a study conducted by Industrial Information Services, Reno, Nev.
Strong market performance will not, however, affect all grades uniformly. Nearly all increased production will be green fuel grade coke, used mainly by the power and cement industries.
Fuel grade coke represented 52% of total coke produced in 1992 and is expected to account for 64% of production by 1998.
Anode grade coke production in 1992 was about 14.7 million tons, compared with a projected increase to 15.7 million tons/year by 1998. This relatively low growth 7% during 6 years is related to modest growth in world primary aluminum production in the next 5 years, the study said.
About 1.1 million tons/year of needle grade coke is produced now, compared with an expected 1.3 million tons in 1998.
Coke production is strongly concentrated in the U.S.
In 1992, U.S. refineries produced 82% of the world's fuel grade coke, 88% of anode grade coke, and 45% of needle coke. And although the U.S. is the world's largest consumer of coke, its exports have been about 14 17 million tons/year for the past 10 years.
Other major coke producers include Germany, Romania, U.K., Italy, and Kuwait. Countries importing the most U.S. coke are Japan, Italy, Turkey, Netherlands, Belgium/Luxembourg, Spain, Canada, and Australia, says Industrial Information Services.
In the next 5 years, U.S. coke production is expected to grow at about the same rate as the rest of the world.
The study predicts demand, however, will increase more rapidly in the rest of the world. U.S. coke exports will increase from 15.8 million tons in 1992 to about 23.5 million tons in 1998.
Increases in U.S. coke consumption are expected to come from electric utilities. Although only six utilities used fuel grade coke in 1993, a reported 40 additional ones are considering its use between now and 2000.
Industrial Information Services predicts utilities currently not using coke will consume 1.9 million tons of the fuel in 1998. Cogeneration plants, independent power producers, and cement plants are expected to consume additional fuel grade coke in the coming years.
