There's no stopping politicians hot on the trail of other people's money. When the chase crosses international boundaries, it takes on a life of its own.
So it is with the European Union's reinvigorated crusade against global warming. The EU last week examined ways to effect reductions in carbon dioxide emissions in 2005 and 2010 beyond the cuts that its members promised by 2000 but won't be able to produce. How might these ambitious cuts come about? Higher taxes, of course.
HARD QUESTIONS
On the subject of climate change, politicians have outrun scientists. It might even be said that scientists have receded from view.
In growing numbers, scientists are raising hard questions about the pat global warming theory. Many of them now doubt that a buildup of CO2 and other "greenhouse gases" eventually will overheat the planet. They say it's not as simple as all that.
The Christian Science Monitor recently reported data from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) that show apparent cooling in large parts of the heavily industrial Northern Hemisphere. If the simple theory that impels the politics of global warming told the whole story, those regions should be getting warmer.
Increasingly, greenhouse warming looks like just one piece of a very complex puzzle. NCAR researchers think the same human activity that has raised atmospheric CO2 concentrations may have cooling effects as well. In particular, sulfur aerosols, an ingredient of haze, may offset whatever warming may result from the greenhouse-gas buildup by scattering sunlight and making clouds more reflective.
More than that surely is at work. Human existence raises atmospheric temperatures in some ways and lowers them in others. Those influences mix with warming and cooling trends that have nothing to do with people. Science is a long way from accurately predicting the net result.
It is fashionable to regret any changes humankind has visited upon the biosphere since the first person drew his or her first breath. It is also silly. Planet Earth is a complex system with more adaptive mechanisms than anyone recognizes. A growing appreciation for that complexity explains why scientists have begun dismissing predictions of catastrophic warming as simplistic.
Yet EU politicians, like many of their counterparts in the U.S., remain frantic about CO2 emissions. They either haven't heard what scientists have been saying about global warming or care more about raising taxes than they do about the climate. For whatever reason, EU's stalwarts are once more talking about stiff energy levies based on the carbon content of fossil fuels.
UNWARRANTED FEARS
It makes no sense to raise taxes so much-the equivalent of $10/bbl of oil under some proposals-on the basis of a weakening theory. Some still say it's better to be safe than sorry. But that works only if enough people remain frightened enough by the prospect of catastrophic warming to stand for a fleecing on fuel purchases. Scientists doubt such fears are warranted. Politicians craving money have other ideas.
It is unfortunate that these issues must be settled in the heady arena of international politics. At this level, what matters most is statecraft, the main ingredient of which is compromise. The oil and gas industry must make certain that what scientists now say about global warming does not stay compromised out of view. The way to do that is to take the message to individual taxpayers for whom state-level compromise inevitably means economic sacrifice. For global warming, sacrifice simply isn't warranted.
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