Global energy, cubed

Steven Poruban
Senior Editor

An interesting perspective on meeting the challenges of rising global energy demand is offered in the book, A Cubic Mile of Oil: Realities and Options for Averting the Looming Global Energy Crisis, published this year by Oxford University Press Inc. (OUP).

Named after the volumetric unit equal to what the book's authors say is the world's total annual consumption of crude oil (1 cu mile, or CMO), the book examines the world's current rate of consumption of all sources of energy and its challenges in meeting that demand going forward.

The book's authors, Hewitt D. Crane, Edwin M. Kinderman, and Ripudaman Malhotra, state that the newly introduced measuring unit, the CMO, "replaces mind-numbing multipliers (such as billions, trillions, and quadrillions) with an easy-to-understand volumetric unit."

The CMO unit was coined by Crane while waiting in a line for gasoline in 1973 when he began contemplating how much oil the world was then using each year. The estimated CMO unit "evokes a visceral response and allows experts, policymakers, and the general public alike to form a mental picture of the magnitude of the challenge we face," the authors say.

The world's total annual energy consumption, from all sources of energy, according to the authors, is currently 3 CMO (1 CMO of oil, 0.8 CMO of coal, 0.6 of natural gas, and roughly 0.2 each of hydro, nuclear, and wood; solar, wind, and biofuels barely register on this scale, producing a combined total of 0.03 CMO in 2008). By 2050, the authors say, the world will need 6-9 CMO/year of energy.

"Meeting the world's demand for energy is going to be a daunting challenge," the authors state, "and the way we choose to do it, namely the energy sources that we choose to employ will have a profound effect on the lives of millions of people."

The book provides an "unvarnished look" at the different types of energy sources "so people can engage in an informed dialog about the choices we make," the authors say. "People have to be involved in making the choice, or the choice will be made for them," they say.

In a Q&A posted to OUP's web site, Malhotra, an organic chemist who has worked extensively in the area of energy, offers some insight on energy, climate change, and the challenges ahead.

"The challenge of supplying energy to the world's population is really overwhelming," Malhotra says. "Even at a modest growth rate of 2%/year (corresponding to a doubling every 36 years), the world's energy demand by 2050 will be over 7 CMO."

Malhotra continues, "The cumulative energy consumed in the first half of this century (2000 to 2050) is projected between 160 and 270 CMO. When we look at what it takes to develop an infrastructure capable of producing even 1 CMO of energy, we realize that here are no easy solutions, and it will take an enormous effort sustained over many decades."

Malhotra goes on to say that an all-out commitment and perseverance to develop all of the world's energy sources is needed to blaze the path forward.

He says, "Consider for a moment what it takes to produce even 1 CMO/year. It takes 2,500 nuclear plants of 1 Gw capacity to generate 1 CMO. If we choose to go this route, we need to be commissioning one nuclear plant per week for 50 years to get 2,500 plants up and running."

He adds, "If we choose hydroelectric, and use the 22.5-Gw Three Gorges Dam as an example, we will need 153 of those, or about one new Three Gorges Dam every 4 months for 50 years."

In another example, Malhotra reckons it would take 4.5 billion residential rooftop photovoltaic systems, at 2 kw each, to produce the equivalent of 1 CMO/year. In other words, the installation of 250,000 rooftop systems each day, everyday, for 50 years.

In the face of these realities, Malhotra says that the calls for "turning off" fossil energy sources in order to quickly power the world with renewables are irresponsible. "We will need to develop, coal, and oil, and nuclear, and wind, and solar, and... 'and' is the operative conjunction, not 'or.'"

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