WoodMac: Oil prices in 2025 likely to average $7/bbl lower than 2024
Brent crude oil prices are projected to average $73/bbl in 2025, down $7/bbl from 2024, according to Wood Mackenzie’s latest monthly oil market outlook.
The $73/bbl forecast, revised down $0.40/bbl from the early February monthly report, is primarily shaped by two factors: OPEC+ production plans and US tariff policies, WoodMac said.
"We’re seeing a complex interplay of supply and demand factors. While global demand is expected to increase by 1.1 million barrels per day in 2025, non-OPEC production is forecasted to rise by 1.4 million barrels per day, potentially outpacing demand growth,” said Ann-Louise Hittle, vice-president of oils research, WoodMac.
Forecast takeaways
- OPEC+ plans to increase production in small monthly increments from April 2025 through September 2026. Postponing this plan would support prices and could offset the impact of additional US tariffs.
- Global economic growth for 2025 is projected at 2.8%, but this could be adjusted downward by around 0.5 percentage points depending on potential trade war scenarios.
- Slower GDP growth could reduce the oil demand increase in 2025 by about 0.4 million b/d.
- Annual average for Brent crude could be $3-5/bbl lower if oil demand growth weakens.
Global economic conditions, tariff and trade policies, and OPEC+ decisions could change the projections, WoodMac said.
“Slower GDP growth would put the demand gain in 2025 about 0.4 million b/d less than the current projection for the year,” said Hittle.
"The resulting 0.7 million b/d year-on-year gain would be surpassed to a greater degree by the increase in non-OPEC supply, the majority of which is from conventional projects, so largely independent to oil price. This risk would leave little room for OPEC+ to pursue its plan to bring output back into the market.”
