The COVID-19 downturn will expedite peak oil demand, putting a lid on exploration efforts in remote offshore areas and as a result reducing the world’s recoverable oil by around 282 billion bbl, according to the 2020 release of Rystad Energy’s annual global energy outlook.
Global total expected remaining recoverable oil resources decrease to 1,903 billion bbl, 42% of which are in OPEC territory, with the remaining 58% located outside the alliance.
“Non-OPEC countries account for the lion’s share of ‘lost’ recoverable resources with more than 260 billion bbl of undiscovered oil now more likely to be left untouched, especially in remote exploratory areas,” said Rystad Energy’s Head of Analysis, Per Magnus Nysveen.
OPEC countries are much more resilient to the current crisis and will only lose a fraction compared to their non-OPEC counterparts such as the US (-49 billion bbl) and Russia (-31 billion bbl).
“OPEC countries are expected to lose 21 billion bbl of reserves potential as the negative developments in Venezuela and Iran outweigh the increased strength and reserves potential of core OPEC countries in the Arab Gulf region,” Nysveen added.
