OGJ survey shows global oil reserves increase while natural gas reserves decline
By end-2024, global proven oil reserves were estimated at 1,765.2 billion bbl, up slightly from the previous year's 1,761.1 billion bbl, according to the Oil & Gas Journal (OGJ)'s annual assessment. Proven natural gas reserves worldwide decreased to an estimated 7,537.7 trillion cubic feet (tcf), compared with 7,544.6 tcf reported in the previous survey.
The published reserves figures rely on survey responses and official updates released by individual countries, which are not provided every year in many cases. OGJ changes its estimate for a country only when it receives evidence that a change is in order. Therefore, in a given reserve summary, a year-to-year change—or lack thereof—may not necessarily reflect a change that applies to the calendar year alone.
OGJ’s figures for oil reserves and production increasingly include natural gas liquids (NGL). Some countries’ gas reserves refer to dry gas reserves after moving NGL reserves into oil reserves.
When raw oil data are reported in metric tons, OGJ converts the data to barrels (bbl) using conversion factors recommended by the International Energy Agency (IEA) for individual countries.
Meantime, OGJ forecasts global oil production (crude oil, condensate, NGLs) in 2024 to average 95.95 million b/d vs. a 2023 average of 95.2 million b/d. Total OPEC production is set to remain largely flat with the 2023 level, while non-OPEC supply is expected to increase over 1%.
Reserves changes
Total proved oil reserves in the Asia-Pacific region increased 1.4% to 46.57 billion bbl in this year’s report from 45.94 billion bbl in the previous survey. Gas reserves increased by 1% from the year-ago level. The rise was primarily due to contributions from China, India, Indonesia, and Pakistan.
According to the 2024 China Mineral Resources Report (CMR) issued by the Ministry of Natural Resources (PRC), China’s proven remaining oil reserves at yearend 2023 totaled 3.85 billion tons, an increase from 3.81 billion tons at yearend 2022. China’s remaining reserves for conventional natural gas were 6.74 trillion cubic meters (cu m), compared with 6.57 trillion cu m for the year-ago level. Coalbed methane reserves and shale gas reserves were 366 billion cu m (bcm) and 561 bcm, respectively at yearend 2022.
The Ministry did not update reserve figures for these two categories in its recent report. According to CMR, the investment in oil and gas geological exploration was 82.39 billion yuan in 2022, an increase of 3.1% from a year ago.
Geoscience Australia updated its assessments for Australia oil and gas reserves (2019 data) in 2021, the first update since 2015. According to the agency’s estimates, Australia’s proven oil reserves (crude oil, condensate, NGLs) were 1.8 billion bbl in 2019, down from the 2015 figure of 2.45 billion bbl. Proven natural gas reserves were 96.5 tcf, down from 114 tcf estimated in 2015. Proven reserves have not been updated since then.
The latest statistical report from the Directorate General of Oil and Gas shows that as of Jan. 1, 2023, Indonesia's proven oil reserves totaled 2.41 billion bbl, up from 2.27 billion bbl a year ago. Its proven natural gas reserves now stand at 35.3 tcf, compared with 36.34 tcf a year ago.
Data from India's Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas shows that India's crude oil reserves increased to 669.5 million tons as of April 2023, compared with 653 million tons as of April 2022. Natural gas reserves fell to 1,149 bcm from 1,142 bcm a year ago.
Pakistan’s oil and gas sector has received a substantial boost, with the country’s total oil reserves increasing by 26% to 243 million bbl as of June 2024, according to the latest data released by the Pakistan Petroleum Information Service. This rise is driven by oil reserve upgrades in key energy companies. Pakistan’s gas reserves posted a 2% increase to 18.5 tcf as of June 2024.
By January 2024, New Zealand's remaining reserves were estimated at 38.3 million bbl of crude oil and condensate, 965,000 tons of LPG, and 1036.9 bcf of natural gas. A year earlier, these figures were 49.7 million bbl, 1.24 million tons, and 966 bcf.
Western European oil and natural gas reserves were both down from the previous year's survey, mainly due to lower reserves reported in Norway and the Netherlands.
The latest annual resource report of the Norwegian Offshore Directorate (NOD) shows that, at yearend 2023, Norway’s proven oil reserves, which include crude oil, condensate, and NGL, amounted to 6.91 billion bbl, down from 7.64 billion bbl a year ago. Norway’s gas reserves at yearend 2023 decreased to 48.24 tcf from 51.87 tcf at yearend 2022. NOD uses the United Nations Framework Classification System for reserves classification.
According to estimates from the North Sea Transition Authority, the UK’s proven oil reserves at yearend 2023 remained at 1.5 billion bbl. Proven gas reserves decreased to 0.7 billion boe from 0.8 billion boe a year ago.
According to the Danish Energy Agency, Denmark’s estimated oil reserves increased to 58 million cu m as of January 2024 from 55 million cu m as of January 2023. Gas reserves increased to 1,130 bcf from 918 bcf.
Canadian conventional heavy and light oil are now estimated at 4.3 billion bbl at yearend 2021, according to Canadian Energy Regulator (CER) evaluations. The latest estimate of Canadian oil sands reserves (mining, in situ) decreased to 158.8 billion bbl at end-2021 from 160 billion bbl at end-2020, according to CER. In the natural gas segment, CER releases a natural gas “resource” estimate but not a “reserve” figure, so OGJ makes a preliminary estimate of reserves, which is subject to revision.
According to Pemex’s annual hydrocarbon evaluations, as of January 2024, Mexico’s estimated proved oil reserves totaled 5.9 billion bbl, down from 6.08 billion bbl as of January 2023. The current oil reserves consisted of 5.36 billion bbl of crude and condensate and 544.6 million bbl of NGL. Mexico’s proved dry gas reserves total 8.25 tcf as of January 2024, up from 7.08 tcf as of January 2023.
Brazil's proven oil reserves were declared at 15.9 billion bbl by end-2023, up from 14.86 billion bbl by yearend 2022, according to Brazil’s National Petroleum Agency. Búzios, Tupi, and Raia Manta fields contributed the most to the increase. Proven natural gas reserves were 18.26 tcf, an increase from 14.35 tcf a year ago.
Argentina's latest estimated proved oil reserves total 3 billion bbl, up from 2.92 billion bbl a year ago. Proved gas reserves have reached 17.15 tcf, up from 15.86 tcf a year ago.
In the Middle East, Oman’s crude oil and condensate reserves by end-2023 totaled about 4.97 billion bbl, up from the 4.9 billion bbl reported in the previous year. The estimated natural gas reserves by yearend 2023 amounted to 23 tcf, down from the previous year’s 24 tcf.
OPEC reserves
The reserves figures reported for OPEC members are referenced from the organization’s latest (2024) annual statistical bulletin.
Total proved crude oil reserves for the current OPEC group remain nearly unchanged from the previous year, at about 1,241 billion bbl, while total natural gas reserves increased slightly to 2,653 tcf from 2,648 tcf.
Notably, Nigeria's crude oil reserves rose to 37.5 billion bbl from 36.96 billion bbl last year, with natural gas reserves up by 1 tcf. Meanwhile, Venezuela's oil and natural gas reserves both experienced slight declines.
As in the previous release, the current OPEC’s oil reserves account for around 71% of the worldwide total and gas reserves account for around 35% of the world’s gas reserves.
US reserves
According to the latest reserves report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), US crude oil and lease condensate proved reserves rose by 9%, from 44.4 billion bbl in 2021 to 48.3 billion bbl by end-2022, with production increasing by 6% that year.
The increase mirrors higher crude oil prices in 2022 compared with 2021. The average spot price for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil at Cushing, Okla., climbed 43%, to $94.54/bbl in 2022 from $66.26/bbl in 2021.
Holding more proved reserves of crude oil and lease condensate than any other state, proved reserves in Texas increased by 9% (1.7 billion bbl) in 2022, marking the largest net gain. New Mexico's reserves grew by 26%, the second-largest net increase (1.3 billion bbl). North Dakota saw a 14% rise, the third-largest increase (around 600 million bbl). California faced the largest net decrease, with a 13% drop in proved reserves of crude oil and lease condensate (225 million bbl) in 2022.
US natural gas proved reserves grew by 10%, to 691.0 tcf at yearend 2022 from 625.4 tcf at end-2021, setting a record for the second straight year.
In 2022, Alaska's natural gas reserves rose by 25%, to 125.2 tcf from 99.8 tcf, marking the largest increase among all states. Texas saw the second-largest increase in natural gas reserves, at 14% (21.2 tcf), while New Mexico had the third-largest increase, at 27% (9.9 tcf).
The 12-month, first day-of-the-month average spot price for natural gas at the Louisiana Henry Hub increased to $6.29/MMbtu in 2022 from $3.67/MMbtu in 2021, the highest annual average price since 2008.
Meantime, according to EIA’s estimates, proved reserves of dry natural gas in the US increased to 653.15 tcf in 2022 from an estimated 589.2 tcf in 2021.
The estimated volume of natural gas plant liquids (NGPLs) (unlike lease condensate) in proved reserves of total natural gas increased to 32.58 billion bbl in 2022 from 26.2 billion bbl in 2021.
EIA is scheduled in April 2025 to update the yearend 2023 estimates of proved reserves. As OGJ went to press at end-November, the figures were not yet available, so OGJ made its own estimates as usual. These estimates have demonstrated reasonable accuracy when it comes to tracking trends and quantities.
OGJ estimates that by end-2023, US proven oil reserves, including crude oil, lease condensate, and NGL reserves, totaled 83.7 billion bbl, up 3.5% from the prior year. Dry natural gas reserves decreased to 633.5 tcf, down 3% from a year ago. The changes reflect commodity prices during 2023 as well as information observed from OGJ50 data for 2023. OGJ will update yearend 2023 US reserves with EIA data in next year’s report.
World oil production
Global oil production in 2024 is expected to increase about 1% and average 95.95 million b/d vs. an estimated 2023 average of 95.2 million b/d. The US, Brazil, Guyana, and Canada are set to account for most of the increase.
Total OPEC oil supply in 2024 is forecast to average around 32 million b/d, slightly down from the 2023-level. Saudi Arabia’s oil supply is expected to contract by 4% to 10.6 million b/d, reflecting its production cuts. Iranian oil supply could surge by 10% in 2024 due to production from new oil fields and strong exports.
In 2024, non-OPEC supply is expected to increase by 1%, or around 800,000 b/d, to a total of nearly 64 million b/d. The US is projected to lead this growth with a 4% increase, achieving a new production record of about 20 million b/d. US shale oil operators have enhanced drilling efficiencies and reduced costs, leading to higher growth rates than previously stated.
Canadian oil supply is forecast to average 5.85 million b/d in 2024, 4% higher than in 2023. Growth this year and next will be supported by increased takeaway capacity from the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline, which entered commercial service in May 2024.
Brazil's oil production is expected to remain flat this year from 2023 levels, as output from new facilities balances out field declines.
Supply from Guyana is forecast to surge over 50% to 610 million b/d in 2024, supported by the ExxonMobil-led consortium.
Russia’s oil production is expected to average 10.6 million b/d in 2023, down 2% from the year-ago level of 10.9 million b/d. Oil production in Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan is expected to decrease by 1% and 4% in 2024, respectively.
Oil production in the Asia-Pacific region in 2024 is expected to increase slightly by 1%. China's oil production will increase by 2% to 4.27 million b/d in 2024, thanks to continued strong capital investment. China National Offshore Oil Corp. (CNOOC) has seen first oil from five projects this year totaling 80,0000 b/d of peak capacity. Australia’s production will decrease around 1% this year. Production from Indonesia continues to drop, reflecting a lack of investment and new projects.
Conglin Xu | Managing Editor-Economics
Conglin Xu, Managing Editor-Economics, covers worldwide oil and gas market developments and macroeconomic factors, conducts analytical economic and financial research, generates estimates and forecasts, and compiles production and reserves statistics for Oil & Gas Journal. She joined OGJ in 2012 as Senior Economics Editor.
Xu holds a PhD in International Economics from the University of California at Santa Cruz. She was a Short-term Consultant at the World Bank and Summer Intern at the International Monetary Fund.
Laura Bell-Hammer | Statistics Editor
Laura Bell-Hammer has been the Statistics Editor for the Oil & Gas Journal since 1994. She was the Survey Editor for two years prior to her current position with OGJ. While working with OGJ, she also was a contributing editor for Oil & Gas Financial Journal. Before joining OGJ, she worked for Vintage Petroleum in Tulsa, gaining her oil and gas industry knowledge.