How soon might the world resume its concern about "peak oil?"
The rise of hydrocarbon gas and liquids production from shales has been phenomenal in the US, and Canada also has seen rapid growth. Remaining potential appears vast in North America and in the rest of the world, incalculable, to some.
The World Energy Council, in a report released earlier this month, foresees energy aplenty.
The council stated, "There is a greater abundance of energy resources in the world today than at any other time, and, if properly managed, the reserves are sufficient to meet even a significant upturn in demand for decades to come."
The pragmatic among us should keep a watchful eye on governments that bow to minority environmental extremism and retard the unlocking of this cornucopia.
Renewables and peak oil
Renewable fuels, in spite of years of research, development, and demonstration and perhaps trillions in public funds, have been unable to contribute affordable energy at any scale close to the needs foreseen prior to the onset of the shale revolution.
The report, World Energy Resources 2013, stated, "Development of renewables has been significantly slower than was expected 20 years ago."
Renewable sources, especially wind power and solar, have developed exponentially but started from a low base, the report noted. Renewables still represent a small fraction of total global energy supply.
The council found that wind generated 377 terawatt-hours (Tw-hr) of electricity in 2011 from 240,000 Mw of installed capacity, an amount roughly equal to Australia's annual electricity consumption.
China, at 62 Gw, has the world's highest installed wind energy capacity and Denmark, at more than 3 Gw, has the highest level per capita.
The global total of installed capacity for solar photovoltaic stood at 68,850 Mw in 2011 with an energy production around 70 Tw-hr. Between 2008 and 2011, solar PV capacity increased in the US from 1,168 to 5,171 Mw, in Germany from 5,877 to 25,039 Mw, and in Italy from 430 Mw to 13,000 Mw.
Fossil fuel age extended
The report says that the increased assessment of reserves, along with improved energy production and conversion technologies, has enabled the energy industry to meet far higher demand growth than was anticipated 2 decades ago.
"Fossil fuels are still the dominant resource, providing 80% of energy, while new renewables (solar, wind, geothermal, marine) provide about 1.5% only. For electricity production, fossil fuels supply 66% (up by 2%), while new renewables supply around 5%.
"Over the last 10 years the share of coal has increased to around 28% (up by 4.5%), oil has decreased to 31% (down by 6%), while gas has increased to 23% (up by 2%)."
WEC's report said global crude oil reserves today are almost 25% larger than in 1993 and production 20% higher. Reserves could be quadrupled if unconventional resources such as oil shale, oil sands, extra heavy oil, and natural bitumen are taken into account.
WEC tallied a global oil reserves-to-production ratio of 56 years with total available reserves estimated at 223 billion tonnes.
The natural gas RP ratio is 55 years with total reserves estimated at 209 trillion cu m.
Coal is still the global primary energy source (40%) for electricity production. Coal generates 79% of China's and 40% of the US's electricity.
Peak oil, WEC opined, has "moved into a far future."
The future
WEC noted that the growth of renewables has relied mainly on generous government support and subsidies, especially in the European Union.
Biomass energy, it said, has great potential of biomass energy, particularly in Latin America, but concerns about the energy-water-food nexus have to be carefully managed. Other technologies, such as marine energy, still need much research and development.
WEC Sec.-Gen. Christoph Frei surmised: "It is clear that coal, oil, and gas are going to keep powering the economies of many countries for many years to come."
Alan Petzet | Chief Editor Exploration
Alan Petzet is Chief Editor-Exploration of Oil & Gas Journal in Houston. He is editor of the Weekly E&D Newsletter, emailed to OGJ subscribers, and a regular contributor to the OGJ Online subscriber website.
Petzet joined OGJ in 1981 after 13 years in the Tulsa World business-oil department. He was named OGJ Exploration Editor in 1990. A native of Tulsa, he has a BA in journalism from the University of Tulsa.