Canadian production of crude oil and condensate will increase through 2035 but at rates sharply lower than predicted before the crude-price slump of 2014-15 and the onset of problems associated with pipeline congestion.
In its annual outlook for crude oil, the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers projects total Canadian production of 5.86 million b/d of crude oil in 2035, compared with 4.59 million b/d in 2018.
Total Western Canadian supply—which includes diluent, some imported—will increase to 6.34 million b/d in 2035 from 4.66 million b/d in 2018, CAPP said.
In 2014, CAPP predicted total supply from Western Canada would grow to 7.5 million b/d by 2030.
CAPP projects capital investment in Canadian oil sands projects this year at $12 billion (Can.), down for the fifth straight year from $33.9 billion in 2014.
“We need pipeline capacity and more efficient regulatory policy to help bring investment back to the oil sector and drive growth,” said Tim McMillan, CAPP president and chief executive officer.
