OIL PRODUCTION IN COMMUNIST AREAS SHOWS FIRST HALF SLIDE

Communist oil flow fell sharply during first half 1990, continuing a slide that began in 1988.

With the Soviet Union showing by far the steepest decline, crude and condensate production by Communist nations slumped to about 14.86 million b/d. That's down 3.4% from a revised 15.38 million b/d in the same 1989 period.

The drop in Communist oil flow during first half 1990 is the largest for any 6 month period since the end of World War II. Not only did crude and condensate production decline by 520,000 b/d in first half 1990 vs. the same 1989 period, but it was about 740,000 b/d lower than in the comparable 1988 period.

During the brief 1985 Communist oil production slide, flow fell less than 150,000 b/d then, led by the Soviet Union, bounced back to a new high in 1986.

SOVIET UNION

While still the world leader in crude and condensate production, the U.S.S.R. officially reported that its flow slumped from 12.261 million b/d in first half 1989 to about 11.73 million b/d during the same period this year. Thus, the Soviet Union accounted for all of the Communist oil production decline.

The U.S.S.R. expects no quick recovery from its 1988-90 production setback. On the contrary, it believes average second half 1990 crude and condensate flow will fall from the first half level. And it predicts that further declines, perhaps to 11.2 million b/d, are possible in the next several years.

Moscow says production continues to fall in the Soviet Union's largest fields.

That's especially true of fields in western Siberia.

Newly developed western Siberian fields are much smaller than the declining giants and supergiants. Yield from new wells is below plan because of poor production methods and inferior equipment.

CHINA

Meanwhile, the Communist group's second largest producer, China, reported much slower oil flow growth than predicted for 1986-90. Production during first half 1990 was about 2.756 million b/d, up only 1.1% from 2.725 million b/d for the first 6 months of 1989 and 2.6% more than the 2.687 million b/d reported in first half 1988.

China's supergiant Daqing field and the nation's second largest field, Shengli, surpassed first half production targets, official Beijing data show. But offshore oil flow remains below expectations.

This year's Chinese production will be far below Beijing's long term goal of 3 million b/d for 1990.

OTHERS

Elsewhere, Romanian crude flow continues to fall, along with overall industrial output. First half 1990 oil production apparently declined to about 175,000 b/d from 180,000 b/d in the same 1989 period.

Yugoslav production, which peaked at 88,000 b/d in 1981, probably did not exceed 65,000 b/d in the first 6 months of 1990 vs. 69,000 b/d in first half 1989.

Viet Nam's oil production-all offshore from a single field in the South China Sea-is rising. However, with first half flow only about 20,000 b/d vs. 17,000 b/d in the same 1989 period, the nation's 1990 goal of 50,000 b/d seems far out of reach.

Other estimated first half 1990 Communist oil production included Albania 45,000 b/d, Hungary 40,000 b/d, Cuba 15,000 b/d, East Germany 6,000 b/d (mostly condensate), Bulgaria 5,000 b/d, Poland 3,000 b/d, and Czechoslovakia 3,000 b/d.