EIA: Permian, Eagle Ford to continue bolstering US onshore oil output in June

Crude oil production from the seven major US onshore producing regions is forecast to rise 122,000 b/d month-over-month in June to average 5.401 million b/d, according to the US Energy Information Administration’s latest Drilling Productivity Report. All but 15,000 b/d of the increase is expected to come from the Permian and Eagle Ford.

The monthly DPR tracks the total number of active drilling rigs, drilling productivity, and estimated changes in production from existing oil and natural gas wells in the Bakken, Eagle Ford, Haynesville, Marcellus, Niobrara, Permian, and Utica. The seven regions accounted for 92% of US oil production growth and all US gas production growth during 2011-14.

The Permian is projected to gain 71,000 b/d month-over-month in June to average 2.492 million b/d. The Eagle Ford is seen rising 36,000 b/d during the month to 1.28 million b/d.

Based on Baker Hughes Inc. data for the week ended May 12, the Permian’s rig count has risen 223 units compared with its total a year earlier when it hit its low-point in modern BHI data (OGJ Online, May 12, 2017). Given the increased drilling activity, EIA estimates the basin’s count of drilled but uncompleted (DUC) wells rose by 126 month-over-month in April to 1,995.

In the Eagle Ford, where 52 more rigs have started work since last Oct. 14, EIA estimates the DUC tally climbed by 32 in April to 1,315.

Further output increases are expected in the Niobrara, which is seen gaining 7,000 b/d in June to 457,000 b/d. The Bakken is expected to post a rare monthly increase during June, rising 6,000 b/d to 1.032 million b/d. Its DUC count rose by 12 in April to 821.

Gas production from the seven regions is forecast to gain 557 MMcfd month-over-month in June to 51.316 bcfd. All seven regions are expected to show increases, with the Permian up 160 MMcfd to 8.56 bcfd, Haynesville up 130 MMcfd to 6.455 bcfd, Eagle Ford up 112 MMcfd to 6.136 bcfd, Niobrara up 61 MMcfd to 4.678 bcfd, Utica up 49 MMcfd to 4.431 bcfd, Marcellus up 22 MMcfd to 19.258 bcfd, and Bakken up 14 MMcfd to 1.798 bcfd.

EIA estimates the Haynesville’s DUC count climbed by 17 in April to 193, while the Utica dropped 6 DUC wells during the month to 83.

Contact Matt Zborowski at [email protected].