EIA: Permian oil-output drop forecast to increase in June

Crude oil production in June from the seven major US shale regions is expected to fall 113,000 b/d month-over-month to 4.85 million b/d, according to the US Energy Information Administration’s latest Drilling Productivity Report (DPR).

The DPR focuses on the Bakken, Eagle Ford, Haynesville, Marcellus, Niobrara, Permian, and Utica, which altogether accounted for 95% of US crude production increases and all US natural gas production increases during 2011-13.

For the third consecutive month, the Permian is forecast to record an oil-output decline. The projected 10,000-b/d loss in June would bring its total output to 2.02 million b/d. The West Texas basin was the last major oil-producing region for which the EIA projected a monthly loss since overall US shale output began falling in spring 2015.

In South Texas, the Eagle Ford is again expected to represent most of the overall US loss in June, shedding 58,000 b/d to 1.21 million b/d. The Bakken is projected to drop 28,000 b/d to 1.02 million b/d, and the Niobrara is projected to drop 15,000 b/d to 391,000 b/d.

New-well oil production/rig in June across the seven regions is expected to rise by a rig-weighted average of 13 b/d to 575 b/d, reflecting a 23-b/d jump in the Eagle Ford to 994, 23-b/d gain in the Niobrara to 915, 17-b/d increase in the Bakken to 832 b/d, and 13-b/d rise in the Permian to 493 b/d.

Gas production from the regions is forecast to fall 464 MMcfd to 45.97 bcfd. The Eagle Ford is expected to lose 195 MMcfd to 6.3 bcfd, followed by a 74-MMcfd drop in the Niobrara to 4.11 bcfd, 64-MMcfd decrease in the Haynesville to 5.98 bcfd, and 53-MMcfd losses in each of the Marcellus and Permian to 17.29 bcfd and 6.97 bcfd, respectively.

EIA projects gas output from the Utica to increase 4 MMcfd to 3.66 bcfd.