EIA: US shale oil output to decline 116,000 b/d in February

Crude oil production in February from seven major US shale plays is expected to fall 116,000 b/d to 4.83 million b/d, according to the US Energy Information Administration’s latest Drilling Productivity Report (DPR). The agency last month also projected a 116,000-b/d loss for January (OGJ Online, Dec. 7, 2015).

The DPR focuses on the Bakken, Eagle Ford, Haynesville, Marcellus, Niobrara, Permian, and Utica, which altogether accounted for 95% of US crude oil production increases and all US natural gas production increases during 2011-13.

Production from the Eagle Ford is seen dropping 72,000 b/d during the month to 1.15 million b/d, followed by a 24,000-b/d loss in the Bakken to 1.1 million b/d and 23,000-b/d loss in the Niobrara to 371,000 b/d.

Continuing to demonstrate its resiliency, the Permian is forecast to increase 5,000 b/d to 2.04 million b/d.

New-well oil production/rig across the seven plays is expected to increase by a rig-weighted average of 3 b/d to 497 b/d. The Niobrara is again seen leading the way, expected to post a 16-b/d jump to 726 b/d, while the Utica is seen rising 12 b/d to 294 b/d and Eagle Ford rising 9 b/d to 804 b/d.

Shale gas production in February is expected to decrease 405 MMcfd to 43.72 bcfd, mostly reflecting a 225-MMcfd loss in the Marcellus to 15.22 bcfd, 140-MMcfd loss in the Eagle Ford to 6.46 bcfd, and 76-MMcfd loss in the Niobrara to 4.1 bcfd.

Increases are seen from the Utica, up 43 MMcfd to 3.25 bcfd; Haynesville, up 16 MMcfd to 6.23 bcfd; and Permian, edging up 1 MMcfd to 6.91 bcfd.