EIA: US shale oil output to fall 116,000 b/d in January

Dec. 7, 2015

Crude oil production in January from seven major US shale plays is expected to drop 116,000 b/d to 4.86 million b/d, according to the US Energy Information Administration’s latest Drilling Productivity Report (DPR). The agency last month projected a 118,000-b/d decline for December.

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The DPR focuses on the Bakken, Eagle Ford, Haynesville, Marcellus, Niobrara, Permian, and Utica, which altogether accounted for 95% of US oil production increases and all US natural gas production increases during 2011-13.

Consistent with the trend since shale oil production began falling last spring, the Eagle Ford is expected to represent a bulk of the decline, down 77,000 b/d to 1.2 million b/d. EIA also projects the Bakken to drop 27,000 b/d to about 1.1 million b/d, and Niobrara to drop 24,000 b/d to 344,000 b/d.

Double-digit growth is again expected in the Permian, which EIA sees rising 14,000 b/d to about 2.4 million b/d.

EIA projects natural gas production in January from the 7 plays to lose 365 MMcfd to about 43.96 bcf, with the Marcellus leading the way at a 213-MMcfd decline to 15.45 bcfd. The Eagle Ford is expected to drop 172 MMcfd to about 6.41 bcfd, and the Niobrara is expected to drop 66 MMcfd to about 4.11 bcfd.

Gas production from the Utica, meanwhile, is projected to increase 67 MMcfd to about 3.21 bcfd, while Haynesville output is projected to increase 24 MMcfd to about 6.34 bcfd.