Industrial demand for natural gas in the US will rise to 22.1 bcfd in 2020 from 19.8 bcfd in 2012, according to an updated analysis of projects in progress by the Center for Energy Economics (CEE), Bureau of Economic Geology at the University of Texas at Austin.
CEE maintains a database of projects in gas-intensive industries. Its first projection, in June last year, estimated industrial gas demand in 2020 of 23.5 bcfd in the reference case (OGJ Online, July 7, 2014).
The reference case includes projects completed, in front-end engineering and design, obtaining permits, under construction, or otherwise in progress.
In the update, CEE sees fewer projects completed or in progress during the study period: 83 vs. 103.
The biggest change, CEE says, is suspension of Sasol Ltd.’s plans for a gas-to-liquids (GTL) plant at Westlake, La. (OGJ Online, Jan. 28, 2015).
Total investment of projects expected through 2020 in the reference case has declined to $65 billion from $83 billion.
The new high case, which adds to projects in reference-case stages those under consideration or in planning, CEE identifies 112 projects representing total investment of $98 billion.
The high-case projects push 2020 industrial gas demand to 23.3 bcfd.
Plant types in the high-case total are fertilizer, 29; ethylene, 24; polyethylene, 15; methanol, 11; propylene, 9; chlor-alkali and methanol-to-gasolne, 6 each; hydrogen, 5; steel, 4; and GTL, 3.
